The Marginal Barrel Now Loads in Texas

U.S. crude exports hit 5.2 million b/d in April, up more than 30% from February's 3.9 million b/d, with a weekly record of 5.8 million b/d in late April. Asian buyers who lost Middle East supply during the strait closure turned to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The flows have proven sticky even as the strait reopens. WTI Midland's inclusion in the Dated Brent benchmark cemented the grade's role in global price formation.

Where the constraint really sits

Corpus Christi handled roughly half of April's exports and posted its busiest month and quarter on record. Capacity tops out near 2.6 million b/d on pipeline constraints. Across the Gulf Coast, the largest crude terminals show a combined 30-day maximum observed capacity of about 8.35 million b/d. Only around 500,000 b/d of that can load VLCCs directly. Everything else moves on Aframax and Suezmax tonnage or via reverse lightering.

Our read

Dock capacity and vessel-class economics set the marginal export barrel now, not wellhead supply. Traders who control loading windows, understand lightering costs, and can arbitrage the Houston-Corpus spread capture margin the paper market never sees.