Hormuz Back on the Screens

Brent traded above $89 in Asian hours on Monday before easing as Iran's foreign ministry indicated mediated exchanges with Washington were still open. WTI printed near $83.50 at the open, its highest level since mid-June. The move follows the confirmed loss of a third U.S. service member in recent operations and fresh disruption reports around Hormuz shipping lanes.

What the tape is pricing

The July rally has restored roughly half of the risk premium that came out of the market after the June MOU. Brent-WTI has widened back toward $5.80 as the Atlantic basin bids for barrels that Asian buyers would otherwise pull from the Gulf. Prompt VLCC rates on TD3C have firmed alongside insurance war-risk quotes on the corridor. OPEC's July MOMR held its 2026 demand growth call near flat while keeping the supply track intact, so the fundamentals under this move are still surplus.

Our read

Two-way risk is back. Positioning that got short flat price into the July 4 holiday is now covering into a market with real convexity to a single tweet. Physical desks that priced term cargoes off June's soft curve are seeing basis differentials tighten faster than futures. We are staying disciplined on stem lifting windows and keeping optionality on discharge ports for cargoes already on the water.